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California: Whopping advantage for Clinton in latest Field poll


Results of a new poll carried out by Field were circulated. The poll asked interviewees from California for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

Field poll results




Of those who responded, 58.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 28.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was in the field between June 8 and July 2. The sample size was 956 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.2 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls may contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 67.4% for Clinton and 32.6% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of California polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 63.3%. This value is 4.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Field poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 61.3% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 6.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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