California: Whopping advantage for Clinton in latest Field poll
By Results of a new poll carried out by Field were circulated. The poll asked interviewees from California for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Field poll results
Of those who responded, 58.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 28.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between June 8 and July 2. The sample size was 956 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.2 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 67.4% for Clinton and 32.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of California polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 63.3%. This value is 4.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Field poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 61.3% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 6.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.
