The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will garner 59.9% of the two-party vote share in California, while Trump will end up with 40.1%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect only 40.1% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models often incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 61.1% of the two-party vote in California. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 1.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in California.