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Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome


Today, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will achieve 52.5% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.5% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.

In contrast to the combined PollyVote, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.4%.

Expectation polls predict a vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The econometric models present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.6% of the vote.

When comparing predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is particularly high with 52.1% in expectation polls. Since 1996 they had not gained so many votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, Citizen forecasts expected a vote share of 54.9% for Democratic candidate.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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