Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome
Today, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will achieve 52.5% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.5% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.
In contrast to the combined PollyVote, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.4%.
Expectation polls predict a vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The econometric models present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.6% of the vote.
When comparing predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is particularly high with 52.1% in expectation polls. Since 1996 they had not gained so many votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, Citizen forecasts expected a vote share of 54.9% for Democratic candidate.