Bio-index model: Clinton with clear lead
The Bio-index model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 59.6% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 40.4%.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they can contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Bio-index index model Clinton's index model average is 5.9 percentage points worse.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 7.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Bio-index model.