OH Predictive Insights released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
OH Predictive Insights poll results
Of those who replied, 40.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 25 to August 27, among a random sample of 728 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-3.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Arizona polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 48.9%. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the OH Predictive Insights poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 46.7% of the two-party vote in Arizona. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 3.9 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is significant.