Arizona: New CNN-ORC poll shows Trump with 5 points lead
CNN-ORC released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
CNN-ORC poll results
Of those who responded, 44.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 49.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 23. A total of 809 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't have too much faith in the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 47.3% for Clinton and 52.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Arizona polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 51.1%. This value is 1.6 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the CNN-ORC poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Arizona. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.6 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.