Arizona: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 42.8% for Clinton, and 57.2% for Trump in Arizona. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote in Arizona. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 3.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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