Arizona: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead
The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 42.8% for Clinton, and 57.2% for Trump in Arizona. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote in Arizona. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 3.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.