Virtual tie between Trump and Clinton in latest Big-issue index model

The Big-issue model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 50.3% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 49.7%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single index models, as they often contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.4 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Big-issue index model.

The Big-issue model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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