The Big-issue model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 50.3% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 49.7%.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single index models, as they often contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.4 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Big-issue index model.
The Big-issue model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.