Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in latest Electoral-cycle model

The Electoral-cycle model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.4%. In comparison to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 1 percentage point lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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