Trump and Clinton virtually tied in new IBD poll
By IBD published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
IBD poll results
According to the results, 44.0% of interviewees intend to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between August 26 and September 1. The sample size was 861 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 52.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the IBD poll Clinton's poll average is 1.6 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 1.9 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.
