Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in latest Reuters poll
Reuters published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Reuters poll results
Of those who replied, 40.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 25 to August 29 with 1404 participants. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-3.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they may contain substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, you should rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 52.3% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. This value is 1.7 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Reuters poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.3 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is negligible.