Trial-heat model shows Clinton in the lead

The Trial-heat model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 49.6% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the Trial-heat model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.5 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the Trial-heat model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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