Trial-heat model shows Clinton in the lead
The Trial-heat model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models may incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 49.6% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the Trial-heat model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.5 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the Trial-heat model.