Polly currently predicts a national two-party vote share of 52.6% for Clinton and 47.4% for Trump.
A look at Polly's components
There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.
In contrast to Polly's prediction, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.4%.
Citizen forecasts predict a vote share of 52.4% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 49.6% the econometric models differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to the previous week there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins 11.6 percentage points.
In comparison to the predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is notably high with 52.4% in expectation polls. Since 1996 they had not gained so many votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, Citizen forecasts expected a vote share of 54.1% for Democratic candidate.