Putting the results in context
By Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where Republicans and Democrats have often gained similar levels of voter support. This is why the election outcome in that state is viewed as crucial in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of participants said that they would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 25 to August 27 among 800 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 50.0% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 48.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Ohio. Relative to numbers in the Emerson poll Clinton's poll average is 2 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 48.1% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Hence, Polly's forecast is 1.9 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.
