Primary model: Trump with small lead

The Primary model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 47.5% for Clinton, and 52.5% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, as they can contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, you should rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.4% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Primary model Trump's econometric model average is 2.1 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 5.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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