Ohio: Clinton with negligible lead in new CBS News/YouGov poll
Results of a new poll conducted by CBS News/YouGov were circulated. The poll asked respondents from Ohio for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Historically, Ohio has been a swing state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts here are of particular interest.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between August 17 and August 19. The sample size was 997 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 52.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Ohio. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.8% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Hence, Polly's forecast is 1.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.