Ohio: Clinton tied with Trump in new Emerson poll
Results of a new poll administered by Emerson were released. The poll asked participants from Ohio for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have historically won similar levels of support among voters. This is why the election outcome in that state is considered important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Emerson poll results
The results show that billionaire Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have identical levels of support, each with 43.0% of the vote.
The poll was carried out between August 25 and August 27. The sample size was 800 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't rely too much on the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 52.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Ohio. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 2 percentage points worse in the poll. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.8% and Trump 48.2% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 1.8 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is significant.