New Lockerbie model: Trump and Clinton in a tossup

The Lockerbie model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 50.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 49.6%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, you should use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.6%. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Lockerbie model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lockerbie model for Clinton are thus 2.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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