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New 538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck


The 538 (polls-plus) model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.5%. In comparison, on September 6 Trump was predicted to achieve 48.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, don't have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 49.6% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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