Leading indicators model: Clinton is in the lead
The Leading indicators model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be regarded with caution, as they may incorporate substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.6%. Compared to numbers in the Leading indicators model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.4 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Leading indicators model.