Leading indicators model: Clinton is in the lead

The Leading indicators model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be regarded with caution, as they may incorporate substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.6%. Compared to numbers in the Leading indicators model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.4 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Leading indicators model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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