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Latest Vox.Com model: Trump and Clinton in a dead heat


The Vox.Com model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 49.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 50.9%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.4% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Vox.Com model Trump's econometric model average is 0.5 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Vox.Com model for Trump are thus 3.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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