The Time-for-change model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they may include large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 50.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1 percentage point lower than corresponding numbers in the Time-for-change model.
The Time-for-change model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Time-for-change model.