Latest Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania: Clinton holds clear lead
Monmouth published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Monmouth poll results
The results show that 48.0% of respondents indicated that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 26 to August 29 among 402 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-4.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 54.6% for Clinton and 45.5% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 53.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. Compared to her numbers in the Monmouth poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 0.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is insignificant.