The Convention bump model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.8%.
Putting the results in context
Single models can incorporate large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton is currently at 49.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Relative to numbers in the Convention bump model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points lower.
The Convention bump model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Convention bump model.