Issue-index model: Clinton with clear lead
The Issue-index model is part of the index models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 55.8% for Clinton, and 44.2% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results compared to other index models
Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.7%. Relative to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.1 percentage points lower.
The Issue-index model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.