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Issue-index model: Clinton with clear lead


The Issue-index model is part of the index models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 55.8% for Clinton, and 44.2% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results compared to other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.7%. Relative to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.1 percentage points lower.

The Issue-index model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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