Fiscal model model: Trump with small lead
The Fiscal model model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 48.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 51.8%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models may include substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently runs at 50.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Fiscal model model Trump's econometric model average is 1.4 percentage points worse.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fiscal model model.