Fair model: Trump with clear lead
The Fair model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 44.0% for Clinton, and 56.0% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.4%. This value is 5.6 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Fair model.
The Fair model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 8.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fair model.