Dead heat between Trump and Clinton in new Issues and Leaders index model
The Issues and Leaders model is part of the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.6%.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 2.3 percentage points better.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.