LA Times published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
LA Times poll results
The results show that both candidates have equal levels of support, each with 44.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from August 30 to September 5 among 2605 participants. The sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton can currently count on 52.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 2.2 percentage points worse in the poll. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% and Trump 47.5% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.5 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.