Results of a new poll administered by Franklin & Marshall were released. The poll asked respondents from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Franklin & Marshall poll results
Of those who answered the question, 47.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 25 to August 29, among a random sample of 496 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-5.6 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they may contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Franklin & Marshall poll Clinton's poll average is 0.3 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.2 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is insignificant.