The Lewis-Beck & Tien model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.9%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 49.6% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.