Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in latest Lewis-Beck & Tien model

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.9%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 49.6% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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