CBS News/YouGov released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
According to the results, 45.0% of interviewees would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 37.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 30 to September 2. A total of 1091 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-4.1 points, which means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they may contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 54.9% for Clinton and 45.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 53.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the PollyVote is 0.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is insignificant.