The Bio-index model enters the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 59.6% for Clinton, and 40.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, as they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single index models, the recommended strategy look at combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Results vs. other index models
Clinton can currently count on 53.7% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. This value is 5.9 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Bio-index index model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Bio-index model for Clinton are thus 7.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.