Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in latest Electoral-cycle model

The Electoral-cycle model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 48.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.4%.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be regarded with caution, because they can contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 1 percentage point lower than corresponding numbers in the Electoral-cycle model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 47.2% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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