The Electoral-cycle model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 48.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.4%.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be regarded with caution, because they can contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 1 percentage point lower than corresponding numbers in the Electoral-cycle model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 47.2% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.