Trial-heat model shows Clinton in the lead

The Trial-heat model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.6%. In comparison to numbers in the Trial-heat model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.5 percentage points worse.

The Trial-heat model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the Trial-heat model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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