Tossup between Trump and Clinton in latest Lewis-Beck & Tien model

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.9%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, since they often incorporate large biases. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.6%. In comparison to numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.5 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model for Clinton are thus 1.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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