USA Today poll: Trump trails by 7 points
USA Today published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
USA Today poll results
Of those who replied, 48.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between August 24 and August 29. The sample size was 1000 participants. Given the poll's error margin of +/-3.0 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 53.9% for Clinton and 46.1% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 52.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 1.8 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the USA Today poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's prediction is 1.3 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.