Primary model: Trump with small lead

The Primary model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 47.5% for Clinton, and 52.5% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.4%. This value is 2.1 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Primary model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 47.2% of the two-party vote. The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 5.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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