Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of interviewees intend to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 25 to August 28, among a random sample of 800 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.8%. This value is 2.1 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Emerson poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the PollyVote is 2.5 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.