Pennsylvania: New CBS News/YouGov poll has Trump behind by 8 points
CBS News/YouGov published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
According to the results, 45.0% of participants intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 37.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 30 to September 2, among a random sample of 1091 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may contain substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 54.9% for Clinton and 45.1% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton can currently count on 53.8% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. Relative to her numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is negligible.