Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where the Democrats and the GOP have historically achieved similar voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is viewed as important in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, billionaire Donald Trump and former First Lady Hillary Clinton can draw on equal levels of support, each with 43.0% of the vote.
This poll was conducted from August 25 to August 27, among a random sample of 800 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton currently runs at 52.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Ohio. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 2 percentage points worse in the poll. This deviation is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.9% and Trump 48.1% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 1.9 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is significant.