PPP poll: Trump trails by a marginal margin
PPP released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
PPP poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of respondents plan to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 26 to August 28 with 881 participants. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 52.8% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.2%. Compared to numbers in the PPP poll Clinton's poll average is 0.6 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's prediction is 0.2 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.