New Monmouth poll in Ohio: Clinton with slim advantage
By Monmouth published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where the two major political parties have often won similar voter support. This is why the election outcome in that state is considered important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Monmouth poll results
The results show that 43.0% of participants said that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 39.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 21. A total of 402 likely voters responded. The sampling error is +/-4.9 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they may contain large biases. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Ohio sees Clinton at 51.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Monmouth poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.
