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New Keys to the White House index model: Clinton and Trump virtually tied


The Keys to the White House model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.5%.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models should be treated with caution, as they may include substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Keys to the White House index model Clinton's index model average is 2.7 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the Keys to the White House model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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