The Keys to the White House model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.5%.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models should be treated with caution, as they may include substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Keys to the White House index model Clinton's index model average is 2.7 percentage points better.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the Keys to the White House model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.