Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in latest IBD poll
By IBD released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
IBD poll results
Of those who responded, 44.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 26 to September 1 with 861 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 52.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the IBD poll Clinton's poll average is 1.6 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 2.0 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.
