Results of a new national poll carried out by Economist were announced. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Economist poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of participants would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 27 to August 29 among 1119 participants. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often contain substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.8% for Clinton and 47.2% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 52.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. Compared to numbers in the Economist poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 0.2 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.