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New NBC/SurveyMonkey poll shows Trump with 6 points lead

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NBC/SurveyMonkey released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

NBC/SurveyMonkey poll results
48

Clinton

42

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 48.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted via Internet from August 29 to September 4, among a random sample of 32226 participants. The error margin is +/-0.6 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 46.7% for Clinton and 53.3% for Trump. In the most recent NBC/SurveyMonkey poll on August 31 Clinton obtained 53.3%, while Trump obtained only 0.0%.

Results in comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 47.8%. Relative to numbers in the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll Trump's poll average is 5.5 percentage points worse. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 5.9 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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