New NBC/SurveyMonkey poll shows Trump with 6 points lead
NBC/SurveyMonkey released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
NBC/SurveyMonkey poll results
Of those who answered the question, 48.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted via Internet from August 29 to September 4, among a random sample of 32226 participants. The error margin is +/-0.6 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 46.7% for Clinton and 53.3% for Trump. In the most recent NBC/SurveyMonkey poll on August 31 Clinton obtained 53.3%, while Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 47.8%. Relative to numbers in the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll Trump's poll average is 5.5 percentage points worse. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 5.9 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.