Methods widely agree on the election outcome

In the latest update, the combined PollyVote concludes that Clinton will obtain 52.9% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.1% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.

According to the econometric models Trump is currently ahead by 50.4%.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expectation polls with a vote share of 53.3% for Clinton. With a vote share of 49.6% the econometric models differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.

In comparison to the predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is especially high with 53.3% in expectation polls. Since 1996 they had not gained so many votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, expectation polls expected a vote share of 54.1% for Democratic candidate.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.