Leading indicators model: Clinton with small lead
The Leading indicators model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.6%. Compared to numbers in the Leading indicators model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.4 percentage points lower.
The Leading indicators model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the Leading indicators model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.