Latest Vox.Com model: Trump and Clinton in a dead heat

The Vox.Com model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 49.1% for Clinton, and 50.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, you should use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 50.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Vox.Com model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 47.2% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 3.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Vox.Com model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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